我的 Virtus Investment Partnership 歷險記 之三----等待與收割

我在大約十年前曾經翻譯過一篇文章"一個不曾在股市中虧過錢的人"跟家人和朋友分享，文中有一個很好的概念，就是說投資就像是種莊稼。『不可能每天，每星期，或者每個月買股票而賺錢。就像種稻，不可能每天，每星期，或者每個月播種，而能種出莊稼來。』

到了2010年三月底，我可以說已經播種完畢，跟著能做的事，不過是等待而已。等待的日子裡，就是去再三的檢驗自己的假設。當公司發佈重大訊息時，就去對應自己預計這投資案發展的情形。大約每一季固定要讀一下季報，並且聽一聽說明會的錄音。用意倒不是要殺進殺出，而是要避免發生以為自己是在種稻子，結果是在種雜草的情形。

大凡追蹤這類的公司，有兩個方面可以追蹤，一般人追蹤的股價趨勢，其實並不是我個人追蹤的要點。這類的資產管理公司一般會每個月發佈管理資產的總額。追蹤管理資產的總額告訴你營收的趨勢，可以看一看。不過這比較算是過去式。

另一個可以看一看的方面，則是去看這個公司管理的基金的績效。假如基金的績效不錯，又遇到晨星這樣公司基金評鑑快到了，有可能升等基金績效的評鑑等級。評鑑變好可以正面影響基金銷售。

做這些事，基本上是在對照自己原來的評估，確定公司的特質沒有變壞。不會種到了不結果子的樹而不自知。

我自2010年三月底播種完畢成本是一股$16到一股$20，到2011年春季在一股$56賣出大約一半，到2012年春季在一股$81左右賣出剩下的另外一半，只留下了一股要看一看會漲到多高。

這VRTS投資案，在我的經驗中大概算是個蠻成功的案例。 資產管理公司的鑑價是相對容易的，加上大於1的Beta，在股市低迷時特別值得考慮。

不幸的是，到了2013年五月，VRTS的股價已經來到了一股$247!  還好2012年變賣掉VRTS的資金是投入了AIG，先後購入了AIG以及AIG-WT，因此雖然沒有一塊錢變成三塊錢，但至少也是一塊錢變成一塊七毛錢到一塊八毛錢。因此雖然有些機會成本，但是心中並不難過。

然而既然VRTS的股價已經不便宜了，不再有安全邊際了，做為一個價值投資人的我，另尋像AIG這樣既便宜又有安全邊際的投資標的，才是正解。

不過那又是另一個歷險記了。

Disclosure: I am long 1 share of VRTS.

Disclaimer: Under no circumstance is this an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities discussed herein.

我的 Virtus Investment Partnership 歷險記 之二 ----這真的很便宜(嗎?)

既然找到了這家公司的名字，我就開始來估估看，這家公司大概值多少錢。

首先我試著用『現金流折現評價法』，不幸的是，這方法直接應用在這家公司的估值，的確相當困難。

基本上在2009年之前，這家公司是連年虧損累累。我一方面心中有些疑惑，想說這公司到底發生什麼事，畢竟資產管理公司一般只是代替客人管理資產，怎麼說都不該虧損連年。一方面又想說，也許有什麼原因讓賬面數字難看，但也許也只是賬面數字難看而已，假如經濟的現實面是沒問題的，這也許會是一個投資的良機。

原來Virtus Investment Partnership(NYSE: VRTS) 這家公司是從一家公司叫做 The Phoenix Companies (NYSE: PNX) 分拆(Spinoff)出來的。 PNX 原本是家人壽保險公司，但在後來業務增加到去管理共同基金。不幸的是在金融海嘯之前這家公司中幫人壽保險部門投資的部門竟然去大量持有房地產貸款的債券。以下是我剪輯下來的一段保險的評等公司把他這家公司降低評等的新聞稿。
A.M. Best Downgrades Ratings of The Phoenix Companies, Inc. and Its Subsidiaries; Outlook Negative

Moreover, A.M. Best is concerned regarding Phoenix’s exposure to securities with emerging risks in the company’s general account investment portfolio. 42% of the bond portfolio is invested in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS), commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) and financial sector holdings.

百分之四十二是房地產貸款的債券!可以想像在金融海嘯中，PNX的下場必定是不堪設想。查一查PNX的股價，果然PNX的股價在2008年七月底還有$9.73一股，在2008年底已經掉到了$3.27一股。到了2009年三月初更是掉到了$0.29一股!問題是這樣的大，在2009年三月下旬，才五十五歲Chairman兼CEO接著就宣佈退休了。

VRTS基本上是PNX把它的管理共同基金的部門，分拆出來成立的一家上市公司。在2009年的年初，剛分拆出來上市的時候VRTS的股價是$10一股，到了2009年三月初已經掉到了大約$4一股。隨後股價開始反彈，到了2009年五月股價來到了$13一股。從此股價就在$13一股到$16一股之間震盪，就這樣一直震盪到了2010年年初。

去查了一查2009年前三季VRTS的季報，基本上VRTS看來好像是虧損累累，然而其中一半大原因是因為無形資產的減損。然而到了第三季，基本上如果我把無形資產的減損加回去，VRTS已經開始小賺。

調查到這裡，我的心裡安穩了幾分，看來這股票，法人機構買來，會有『如何跟客戶解釋』的顧慮。一般的散戶大概不會去買這種看來好像『虧損累累』的股票。而用有經驗一點的會使用篩選軟體來篩選股票的散戶，大概也會因為篩選軟體沒有足夠的歷史資料，因而忽略掉這個可能不錯的投資機會。

前面提過，我試著用『現金流折現評價法』來估計VRTS這公司的基本價值，結果因為我沒有辦法很有把握的來估算未來幾年的現金流，我只得作罷。

於是我回來改用『相對評價法』。股市裡有許多資產管理公司，大的像T. Rowe Price (NYSE: TROW) 跟 Franklin Resource (NYSE:BEN)，小一點的像Janus (NYSE:JNS)跟Affiliated Managers Group(NYSE:AMG)，都會每個月發佈管理資產(Asset under Management, AUM)的數字，因此可以把這些公司列表，來做比較。也可以估出股票大約的基本價值的範圍。

當時我估計的結果，假如用保守的假設，一股應該值$40-$55，假如用不那麼保守的、中庸一點的假設，一股應該值$60-$80。假如用積極一點而有些大膽的假設，一股應該值$100-$120。因為我是個上班族，只能在下班後搜集資料來做分析，這個鑑價估計過程，大約花了我兩個禮拜的時間。因此用大約每股$16購入第一筆股票時，已經是一月十三號了。

不過因為估算出來的基本價值和股價實在差距太大，我的心中其實毛毛的。因此我是分批購買的，一路買到了三月底，購入的成本從每股$16到$20出頭左右都有。

先寫到這兒，改天再談。

Disclosure: I am long 1 share of VRTS.

Disclaimer: Under no circumstance is this an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities discussed herein.

我的 Virtus Investment Partnership 歷險記 之一 ----緣起

在2010年的一月一號，我正坐在家中的電腦前瀏覽我最喜愛的投資留言版，享受著一個美好的假日。螢光幕前卻出現以下這段文字，這段文字背後似乎意味著一個巨大的投資機會，但是這段文字又有些疑惑人，我實在忍不住了，因此就開始追根究底，心中一絲一毫也沒想到這會對自己跟家人產生何等樣的影響和變化。 以下是我所看到的那段文字:

Some new additions am wondering if folks have looked at include VTRS (cheap recently spun-off money manager - 37 bp of AUM) and LSE, LXP or PEI in the REIT space.  Packer

Packer的"正當職業"是為未上市的企業做企業鑑價，他在閒暇之餘把自己工作上的專長跟技能用在上市的公司上，因此如果他說『某某公司很便宜。」一般都是有很穩固的根據的。 而在以上這段文字中，最吸引我的注意力的是"money manager - 37 bp of AUM"這幾個字。

讓我解釋一下，一般的資產管理公司是以所管理的資產(Asset under management，AUM)做為根據來抽取一個百分比作為管理費。 也因此在資產管理公司彼此的購併當中，AUM常常是被當做訂定購併價錢的標準。

我當時的印象是，一般而言，資產管理公司常常在購併市場上是以AUM的3-4%來彼此轉售，因為1%是100bp，你可以想像，假如我們可以用AUM的0.37%來買進這一家資產管理公司的股票，這意思是說這股票是可能漲個七到十倍。你可以想像我會對這資產管理公司會非常感到興趣。

不幸的是，當我在Yahoo上鍵入VTRS時，卻找不到這一家公司。我心中有些失望，不過也只好暫時將此事擺在一邊。事隔一日，我突然靈機一動，想到莫非Packer打字有錯，或許四個字母錯了一兩個，或許四個字母的順序有錯。我試了一會兒，終於找到了這一家叫做Virtus Investment Partnership(NYSE: VRTS)的資產管理公司。

先寫到這兒，改天再談。

Disclosure: I am long 1 share of VRTS.

Disclaimer: Under no circumstance is this an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities discussed herein.

公司管理階層想收購你的股票! 你該怎麼辦？

翻譯一篇兩年前為朋友寫的文章

假設你是一個小小的價值投資人。 你買了一家便宜的股票，而且現在手中還持有這一家便宜的股票。

現在晴天霹靂，有這個消息傳出來，管理層希望從股票的投資者手上將所有的股票收購回去，將公司下市。你該怎麼辦？

嗯，我會這麼辦： 
1．         找出收購案的條件。買方希望你賣的價格是什麼？什麼是你的股份今天在市場上可以得到的價格？ 
2．         搞清楚收購案要多久才會完成，它通常要經過的程序是什麼，一般要多久。
3．         評估收購案實際發生的機率。 
4．         評估股票的內在價值以及它的市場價格的關係。假如收購案失敗了，你認為什麼會是這股票在2至3年後的內在價值？ 
前兩步告訴你假如收購案真正發生了，你會賺多少錢，假設的年化報酬率又是多少。在通常情況下，你賺的錢本身可能只有百分之幾。然而，根據收購案花費的時間去計算，年化報酬率可以是達到25％-40％。這樣的年化報酬率是比10％的長期股市的年化報酬率來得高。

有趣的是，因為這種情況的“原始”的收益看起來很小，這原因可能是為什麼沒有那麼多的個人投資者試圖尋找這樣的機會。第二個為什麼沒有那麼多的個人投資者試圖尋找這樣的機會可能原因則是，一旦一個公司下市，許多提供金融資訊的服務機構就不再報導這一個公司的相關資訊。這就使得研究這種機會，對小投資者來說變得很難。 

不論如何，假如你作了前兩步，你現在非常興奮，因為在2個月內你可能賺到8％，也就是38％的年回報率。但是，先等一下，該交易可能仍然可能功虧一簣！ 

這就是為什麼你得要做最後的2個步驟，如果管理階層擁有超過50％的股票，這筆收購案通常會通過，有可能會修改收購案的條件，但也有可能不修改收購案的條件。有時管理階層的最初報價是如此之低，如果當地法規允許，非管理階層的股東會到法院去打官司。在這種情況下，通常管理階層會小小的增加5-10％的買斷價，以便來安撫非管理階層的股東。 

最後一步是最重要的一步。我想，如果你自稱是一個價值投資者，你必須對股票的價值有些感覺，對嗎？假如跟估計出來的股票的內在價值相比，公佈收購條件後的市場價格已經達到了你的估計內在價值，也許你想直接賣出。也許您可能想要等待交易條件的改善，或從這筆交易中獲得額外的小小的，但是很高的年化報酬率。

如果價格仍遠遠低於你的估計內在價值，你必須認識到，這是一個擲硬幣“頭(正面)我贏，尾(反面)我不輸“的局面。這是一次大大買這股票的時候。換句話說，如果收購案成功了，你在幾個月內將有很高的年化報酬率的小賺。但是如果收購案不成功，你2-3年後再賣股票，年化報酬率仍是15-20％，這不算是世界末日。

我在這裡提供您的只是一個思考過程。我希望你覺得它有用。然而，你的成功將取決於你可以把我上面提到的4個步驟執行得多好。 現在如果你想要試試看，你可以拿國巨收購案練習練習！ 

Where are the Customers' Yachts? or A Good Hard Look at Wall Street

This  book has to be the wittest book that I have ever read about the people and the institutions of the stock market.   The book is written by Fred Schwed, a former stock broker on Wall street, except in those days, brokers are called "customers' men."

Even though the book was written in the 1940s, when you read it today, it would still be very much relevent. In fact, you got this funny feeling that the more things change, the more they stay the same.
 
The book is written in a very witty way with a satarical and penetrating tone.  Reading this book in English, it is great joy. However, some of the most funny sentences in this book, I am not even sure can be translated. 
 
There are some of the wittest sentences that I have ever read about stock market.  Below are some examples:
 
1. About the difficulty in finding good "investment trust management" equivalent of today's money managers, "simply because there is practically no competence to be hired."
 
2.About the chartist, "As a science, I should say that chart reading shares a pedestal with astrology;"
 
3. About the lack of customers for brokers, "eventually even backgammon gets tiresome. So they begin to play the market themselves, using their own money instead of customers'. It is like a saloonkeeper taking a drink in a slack season, and the results are about the same."
 
4. About the passion of prediction of brokerage houses, "On the economic side there is no denying that the more financial predictions you make the more business you do and the more commissions you get."

If you are about to "start investing in the stock market" or have been in the market for a while but not able to consistently make money, or God forbid, you have been "gambling in stock market for excitement and entertainment," I suggest you to read this book.   Somehow someone should tell you the truth! 

ISBN: 0471770892 (English)

           9578457030 (Chinese Tradtional)

           9787111302452 (Chinese Simplifed) 

So the management wants to buy you out? What do you do?

Let’s say that you are a small value investor. Somehow you bought this cheap stock and hold this cheap stock.

Now one day out of blue, there is this news that the management wants to buy out the stock investors and take the company private. What do you do?

Well, this is what I will do:
1. Find out the terms of the deal. What is the management offering to take your part of company away from you? What is the market price that you can get for your share of the company today?
2. Figure out how long it typically will take for the deal to work out.
3. Assess the possibility of the deal to work out.
4. Assess the stock’s intrinsic value in connection to the market price. What do you think the stock will be worth 2 to 3 years later if the buy our deal fails?

The first 2 steps give you the gain and the annualized return assuming the deal passes. Typically the gain itself could only be a few percents. However, depending on the time it takes for the deal to work out, the annualized return can be 25%-40%. These kinds of returns are high compared to the 10% long term stock market return.

Interestingly, probably due to the small “raw” gains from this kind of situation, not that many individual investors try to look into this.  A second possible reason is that once a company is taken private, its information is no longer tracked by many financial information services. This makes studying this kind of situations hard for typical small investors to understand how this works.

Anyway, let’s say that you go through the first 2 steps and now are very excited for you may potentially gain 8% in 2 months as you realize that is a 38% annualized return.  But, wait a minute, the deal could still fall part!

That is why you need to go over the last 2 steps. If the management owns more than 50% of the stock, the deal typically will go through with or without modification in terms. Sometimes the initial offer from the management is so low that the minority shareholders go to court to sue if the local regulation allows. In these cases, typically a small increase 5-10% of buyout price will be offered by the management to appease the minority investors.

The last step is the most important one. I suppose that if you call yourself a value investor, you must have some senses about what the stock is worth, right? How is the market price following the announcement of the buyout offer compared to your estimate of the intrinsic value of the stock?

If the price already reached your estimate of intrinsic value, you may want to sell out directly. Alternatively, you may want to wait for an improvement in deal terms or gain the extra small but high annualized gain from the deal.

If the price is still much lower than your estimate of intrinsic value, you must recognize that this is a “head-I-win, tail-I-don’t-lose” situation. Time to buy big time. In other words, if the deal works, you make small gain with high annualized return in a few months.  If the deal does not work, you make 15-20% a year after 2-3 years, which is not the end of the world.

What I am offering you here is a thought process.  I hope that you find it helpful.  However, your success will depend on how well you can execute the 4 steps that I mentioned above.
Now if you want, you can do this on your own as an exercise using the case of the 國巨 management buyout！

Prof. Andrew Weiss's Investment Do and Don't

I first learned of Dr. Weiss from a guest lecture that he gave at the Business School in Columbia University.
I was deeply impressed by that speech and decided to learn more from Dr. Weiss.

It turns out that Dr. Weiss is not only an economist but also a hedge fund manager. Below are what significant people said about him.
"If I had one person to pick and one guy to put the money in, I would pick him."--Prof. Bruce Greenwald, who taught value investing at Columbia University.
"[Weiss] is a significant person among US economists. I have known him personally for 30 years and I have the highest respect for him."-- Robert Solow, Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics

Below is the note that I took from a speech delivered by Dr. Andrew Weiss at Boston University.


Don't under any circumstances:
1. Buy stocks or bonds from someone who is cold calling you. Especially if they are working for a firm that is not known to you.
2. Put your money in a discretionary account- an account in which the broker can trade without your permission
3. Buy bonds on the secondary market unless you are buying at least $50,000 worth and have gotten at least 3 quotes from different dealers
4. Buy open end mutual funds with high expense ratios. The expense ratio should be less than 0.75% per year for domestic funds and less than 1.5% for foreign funds.
5. Buy a mutual fund with a load or redemption fee.
6. Put your money in a wrap account- an account in which the broker gets a 3% annual fee for managing your money
7. Trade on the bases of past price patterns  (except for tax considerations) or on the basis of what you paid for the stock. (The people to whom you hope to sell your stock don not care what you paid for the stock and your aim is to get more for your stock than you paid for)
8. Speculate in commodities

Avoid:
1. Having a significant fraction of your wealth in the stock of your employer
2. Investment whose value is likely to be low when you need money. These are stocks whose values are correlated with the value of your job or home.
3. Full service stockbrokers
4. Buying mutual funds with high portfolio turnover rates
5. Story stocks- the next cure for cancer, a cure for aids, the solution to the most important problem confronting America. Even if the story is right you still have a good chance of losing a lot of money. UNIVAC (mainframe), Commodore computer (PC) and sea-land (container shipping) were all at the “cutting edge of a revolutionary technology.” They were each terrible investments

Do:
1. Diversify to protect yourself against unlikely events. Remember that unlikely is not impossible.
2. Diversify across common stock with very different characteristics. Stocks in different industries and different countries. A collection of very different risky securities can be a much safer portfolio than a portfolio of “blue chip” investments. The Pennsylvania railroad and the new York central railroad, eastern airlines, Bethlehem steel, General Motors, Poloroid, US Lead, were once blue chip investments. Diversifying across countries buying shares in Canadian and UK companies does not give adequate diversification across different countries. Invest in markets that are not highly correlated with US.
3. Sell your losers to take tax loses.
4. Buy securities that have lower prices relative to their earnings or assets.
5. Read the latest 10K and 10Q reports for securities before you buy them. If your stockbroker won’t supply those reports get a different broker or go to the library.
6. Buy US savings bonds in preference to all other fixed income domestic securities (except junk bonds which should be viewed more as stocks) Why US savings bonds? Taxes are not paid until bonds are redeemed. Interest is 85% of 5 year T-bill rate and is recomputed every 6 months for first 5 years- protection against inflation. After 5 years bonds can be redeemed at any time at no penalty-minor penalties for early redemption you get to benefit from falls in inflation without being hurt by increases in inflation.
7. Construct your own mutual fund from stocks featured in mutual choice in Barron’s the favorite stocks of a mutual fund manager is described each week.
8. Buy stocks in companies about which you have some special knowledge- especially if those are companies that will do well if your own employer does poorly.

“I early on learned that any relationship between what they (stockbrokers) said would happen (to a stock) and what did happen was purely accidental.” Donald Baxter, manager of Philadelphia Fund and former stockbroker.

The original video can be found here.---Boston University Speech